SENTIMEN INVESTOR PASAR SAHAM PADA ERA AWAL KEPRESIDENAN PRABOWO SUBIANTO: ANALISIS KUALITATIF PADA BEI DI SURABAYA

Muhammad Auliya' Nurul Ilmi(1*), Ajeng Tita Nawangsari(2),

(1) UIN Sunan Ampel
(2) UIN Sunan Ampel
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis bagaimana sentimen investor pasar saham Indonesia terbentuk pada masa awal pemerintahan presiden baru. Meng-gunakan pendekatan kualitatif deskriptif, data dikumpulkan melalui wawancara mendalam dengan perwakilan Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Kantor Perwakilan Jawa Timur di Surabaya. Analisis dilakukan dengan menggunakan tiga kerangka teori, yaitu Teori Pasar Efisien (Fama, 1970), Teori Sinyal (Spence, 1973), dan Behavioral Finance (Shefrin, 2002; Shiller, 2004). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa reaksi pasar terhadap presiden baru sangat cepat, namun sering kali tidak sepenuhnya rasional karena dipengaruhi oleh faktor psikologis dan persepsi terhadap kebijakan politik. Investor menilai kredibilitas dan arah kebijakan presiden sebagai sinyal utama dalam mengambil keputusan investasi. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa fluktuasi pasar saham di masa awal kepresidenan merupakan hasil interaksi antara faktor informasi, sinyal politik, dan perilaku investor, serta menegaskan pentingnya komunikasi publik dan edukasi pasar untuk menjaga stabilitas pasar modal.

This study aimed to analyze investor sentiment toward the Indonesian stock market during the early period of a new presidency. Using a descriptive qualitative approach, data were collected through in-depth interviews with representatives of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) East Java Office in Surabaya. The analysis employed three theoretical frameworks: the Efficient Market Hypothesis (Fama, 1970), Signaling Theory (Spence, 1973), and Behavioral Finance (Shefrin, 2002; Shiller, 2004). The findings revealed that market reactions to political transitions were immediate yet often irrational, driven by psychological factors and perceptions of presidential policy direction. Investors viewed presidential credibility and economic policy as major signals for investment decisions. This study concluded that stock market fluctuations in the early presidential period resulted from the interplay between information efficiency, political signaling, and investor behavior, emphasizing the importance of public communication and financial literacy to maintain market stability.


Keywords


Sentimen investor, pasar saham, kepresidenan baru, BEI, analisis kualitatif

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.38076/ideijeb.v6i2.557

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